Esty Complicated

So I’m through all my die counting and math add now need to write some interpretation of what I’ve found.  I was hoping to replicate the black magic of the last post in my count of RRC 383/1, instead I found a complicating set of data.  So RRC 383/1 is famously 1 countermark 1 die and is numbered first 1-170 (Crawford only knew through 169) and also A1-A129.

Again using the Schaefer’s Archive I ran Esty’s statistics.Capture.JPG

What I don’t love is that Esty’s model predicts that we’re missing 25-36 dies.  Counting unattested numbers in each sequence I predict 47 dies are missing.  Not that close, not that close at all…

I might (I fear) have to talk to a statistician to try to understand what is going on.

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